Strong hotel fundamentals fuel HIL increase

The United States Hotel Industry Leading Indicator increased 0.9% during December after a slight decline of 0.1% during November, according to economic research firm e-forecasting.com in conjunction with STR.

'The Hotel Industry Leading Indicator, or HIL, is a composite, monthly leading indicator for the U.S. hotel industry that leads the industry's business activity four to five months on average. The latest monthly change brought the index to a reading of 114.4. The index was set to equal 100 in 2000.

HIL's six-month growth rate, a signal of turning points, increased 1.6% during December. The growth rate is an improvement over November's reading of 0.4%. The industry's long-term annual growth rate is 3.5%, the same as the annual growth rate of the country's overall economic activity.

Six of the nine components that make up the Hotel Industry Leading Indicator had a positive contribution during December: Labor Market Tightness; Weekly Hours in Hotels; Hotel Profitability; Interest Rate Spread; New Orders for Manufactured Goods; and National Vacation Barometer. Three of the nine components had a negative or zero contribution to HIL during December: International Visitors Future Demand; Oil Prices; and Housing Activity.

"In December, we saw the Hotel Industry Leading Indicator picking up once again. Along with the monthly increase, we saw improvements in the six-month growth rate, which bodes well for the second quarter," said Maria Simos, CEO of e-forecasting.com.

The U.S. Hotel Industry Leading Indicator, or HIL, is a monthly leading indicator for the U.S. hotel industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the industry's real-time indicator, HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that have, on average, led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. The indicator provides useful information about the future direction of the U.S. hotel industry.

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